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David versus Goliath – the SNB against everybody else
A picture says more than a hundred words, so I wanted to present in graphical terms what happened at the Swiss National Bank over the last few quarters. Unfortunately, the SNB does not provide foreign...
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All roads lead to a disintegration of the Euro
Our investment thesis can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the...
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Analyze this: The Fed is not printing enough money!
Before you trash me in the comments, hear me out. It started off with Ray Dalio’s “beautiful deleveraging”, which inspired this post. Since the financial crisis, the Fed has increased its balance sheet...
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“Who moved my recession?”
Lakshman Achutan, ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) made a recession call for the US on September 30, 2011 (and confirmed it multiple times since then). Gary Shilling, titling his August letter...
View ArticleLighthouse Macro Report – November 2012: Introducing LRPI
Frustrated by shortcomings of available tools I have created an indicator yielding timely and exact probabilities for US recessions. Please find the report here (freely available): Lighthouse Macro...
View ArticleMonetary Policy – The N-Word
In this excerpt from the December 2012 “Letter to Investors” we look at what looms when the Federal Reserve will embrace nominal-GDP targeting, possibly as early as 2013: Monetary Policy – The N-Word
View ArticleHappy Centennial, Dear Fed
Happy Centennial, Dear Fed! Click on above link to read the excerpt from our January 2013 “Letter to Investors”.
View ArticleConference Briefing: Jim Rickards at the DCA, January 10, 2013
Please find the document here
View Article“And the award for the most creative excuse for joining currency wars goes to…”
… the Bank of Israel! On Monday, Bank of Israel cut interest rates in a surprise decision to 1.5% from 1.75%. Also, they are done with watching the Shekel strengthen against the dollar: “Beginning this...
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Someone would like to see Greece burn
After the close of European equity markets the Sueddeutsche Zeitung ran the following story: Without naming sources, the newspaper claims Euro-Group had decided on an emergency plan for Greece, which...
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Count-down to Grexit?
The ECB has painted itself into a corner. The table below is quite good. In the left column you see that customers have withdrawn around EUR 40bn from Greek banks since October 2014 (almost a quarter...
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Bank Jog
The Wall Street Journal called recent deposit outflows from Greek banks a “bank jog” (as opposed to “bank run”). A bank run usually leads to affected banks running out of cash quickly (within days or...
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Tsipras announces referendum on bailout
From FT’s Peter Spiegel: “Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has announced a national referendum on whether his country should agree to creditors’ demands that would release desperately-needed...
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June NFP
US June non-farm payrolls (+223,000) came in roughly in line with expectations (+230,000). However, revisions over the past five months add up to -154,000. Each of the past five months has been revised...
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US June Retail Sales
US June retail sales (-0.3% m/m) came in below expectations (+0.3%). Excluding car and gasoline sales, sales declined 0.2% (consensus +0.6%). On top of that, May sales were revised downwards by $1.7bn:...
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Gold Crash July 20
In early Asian trade (9:29am Australian time) Gold futures suddenly tanked 5% within seconds. There was no news, no movement in the EUR/USD or other currency pairs. Silver followed, as usual: The...
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Gold: Religion or Salvation?
What can you do if your investment thesis is not working? Look at the arguments of the opposing camp, see if they are convincing or if your train of thought is holding up. Whom should we hear for the...
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What the hell just happened? Part 1
Part 1 Most of the year, the S&P 500 Index traded sideways in a narrow range (+- 3% from end of 2014). Then, suddenly, this: The German DAX-Index had been up 26% by April, but had to give up all of...
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What the hell just happened – Part 2
Part 2 (for part 1, please look here) At the beginning of part 1, I offered three theories to explain what happened on global stocks markets, culminating in the flash crash of August 24, 2015:...
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